Peak Oil And The Future Of Conference Interpreting

               When all major oilfields have been explored and put into production, output will peak and then steadily decline.  This is because reserves will diminish and drilling will have to be deeper and hence more expensive.  Combining a weak US dollar with high oil prices (US$ 130/barrel in June 2008), will affect a wide range of industries.

               The conference industry relies on an army of ancillary services such as logistics, catering, and public relations just to name a few.  It is foreseeable that the number of 3 or 4 day long international conferences being held will decrease as flight and hotel costs escalate.  Remote locations might not even have the chance to host major events as airline companies cut back non profitable routes.

               On the other hand, regional trade and ties are set to improve.  Old trade routes such as the Silk Road are being revived as China's international railway network is now connected to Europe through Central Asia, new railway links to Tibet are also connecting the once remote region with the rest of the mainland.  Improving relations with ASEAN neighbors also point at increasing regional commerce.  The Renminbi's circulation in South East Asia and appreciation against the US dollar also make it a good choice for store of value and trade.

               The impact of these developments on conference interpreting within the region would be as follows:  First, there will be  the need for more language combinations.  If English was dominant in the past, then ASEAN languages such as Putonghua, Korean, Vietnamese, Malay etc will have a greater role to play in the future.  Second, conferences will be shorter given the increasingly prohibitive travel, accommodation and other related costs.  Third, use of teleconferencing will become more prevalent, especially if participants are within the same time zone.

               Barring the discovery of major new oil reserves or significant technological development in alternative fuels, the reality of high oil prices and its sobering consequences are here to stay for good.

First published 20 June 2008.  Copyright of Pierre Wong.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil